The U.S. Senate race in Ohio between Republican challenger Bernie Moreno and incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is too close to call, although Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 11 percentage points in the presidential race.
That’s according to a recent poll of 781 likely voters conducted by RMG Research from Sept. 18-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll found that Moreno, a Trump-endorsed businessman whose family came to America from Colombia when he was 5, held a 47% to 45% advantage over Brown, a former congressman and Ohio state representative who joined the Senate in 2007. Another 5% said they aren’t sure for whom they’ll vote.
When asked what party they would vote for if they knew it would determine which party controlled the U.S. Senate, 51% said Republicans and 43% said Democrats and 6% were not sure.
Larry Sabato, director of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, who also publishes a political newsletter, said he doesn’t think Ohio is essential for the GOP to regain control of the Senate.
“The odds already are that the GOP will win the Senate without Ohio,” Sabato said in an email.
Also in regard to control of the Senate, he said, West Virginia looks certain to flip from Democrat to Republican and Montana appears to be going Republican, too.
“That’s 51 seats for Republicans right there, assuming Democrats are unable to defeat [Sens.] Ted Cruz or Rick Scott—and I’ve seen no convincing evidence that Cruz or Scott is in critical condition yet,” Sabato said.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University who has correctly picked the winner in nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections, said Ohio has been solid for Republicans in presidential elections for some time.
“I don’t expect that to change. If it does, Republicans are doomed,” Lichtman said in an email. “They need Ohio; the Democrats do not.”
He said the Ohio election is crucial to Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of the Senate.
“Along with Montana and West Virginia, it is one of the three most vulnerable states with a Senate seat now held by Democrats,” Lichtman said. “And West Virginia is surely lost to the Democrats.”
Sabato said Ohio could become a factor if Montana goes Democrat and either Cruz in Texas or Scott in Florida is upset.
“That’s where Ohio comes in,” Sabato said. “Moreno could be the 51st seat if he can depose Brown. Right now, it’s a very close race.”
In the presidential race, Trump got 54% and Harris 43% when those polled were asked who they’d vote for if the election were held today.
The former president saw some of his strongest support among voters ages 18 to 34, where 42% gave him a “very favorable” rating. A total of 35% of women gave Trump a “very favorable” rating, but 47% found him “very unfavorable.”
Among independents, 12% said they found Trump “very favorable,” but 47% rated him “very unfavorable.”
Only 27% of men gave Harris a “very favorable” rating while 51% found her “very unfavorable.”
Nonwhites were among the vice president’s strongest supporters, as 46% gave Harris a “very favorable” rating.
Trump won Ohio in 2020 but still lost the election to Joe Biden. In the last eight presidential elections, each of the two major political parties has won the state four times.
Those polled rated the economy and inflation as the most important issues, with 79% calling the economy “very important” and 75% citing inflation.
The Israel-Hamas war and climate change each was rated “very important” by 32%.
Just 5% rated the U.S. economy as “excellent,” while 45% said it is “poor.”
