In the clear, blue sky 50,000 feet above Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina, two F-16 Fighting Falcons square off in a dogfight. Although it may seem like a common drill to the average observer, what makes this particular test unusual is that only one of the two planes is controlled by a pilot. The other is powered by artificial intelligence, known as AI.
In this unprecedented drill, the Air Force’s experimental self-flying fighter takes on a jet flown by a human pilot at speeds up to 1,200 miles per hour. It successfully performs nose-to-nose passes and vertical maneuvers, and forces the opposing jet into vulnerable positions.
But Project Venom, the name of the Air Force initiative to launch unmanned aircraft, is only a glimpse into the way AI is revolutionizing military technology. From systems that allow missiles to seek out hidden targets in thick canopy with alarming precision to quantum computers with the potential to crack the encryption algorithms that practically all computers use, AI is taking the defense world by storm.
The problem is, America is running behind in the global race for AI supremacy.
According to a report released by the data analytics company Govini, America is falling behind China in investing in practical AI capabilities. Although the Defense Department has increased its spending on AI by 150% in the past few years, most of this money goes toward research and development.
Since AI is an emerging industry, it’s easy to envision its future capabilities without cultivating current applications. However, since China’s recent surges in military aggression near Taiwan signal that war may be more imminent than thought, it’s important that America change its AI strategy to be prepared for such a breakout war involving China.
While the Pentagon is stuck in research and development, China’s People’s Liberation Army is engineering AI-powered weaponry to challenge Americans in a conflict. In strategic areas where China now falls short of the U.S., Beijing views AI as its opportunity to regain an advantage.
“The PLA seems most focused on procuring AI for intelligence analysis, predictive maintenance, information warfare, and navigation and target recognition in autonomous vehicles,” says a report in October 2021 from Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
Reports from China show that Beijing matches Pentagon spending on AI, but China’s strategy of civil-military fusion makes it impossible to know how much the communist regime truly spends. Unlike in U.S. industry, Chinese companies must work with the Chinese Communist Party to merge their technology systems in support of national defense.
Given that by 2027 China’s top 2,000 companies will allocate over 50% of core information-technology spending on AI initiatives, American policymakers should be worried about falling behind.
China has the ability to direct massive spending toward artificial intelligence and other dual-use research and technology. The U.S. government won’t be able to compete if it fails to massively leverage the nation’s commercial sector.
This lesson applies across the board regarding defense innovation. The Chinese space industry might well be ahead of the American space industry if the U.S. government had restricted its efforts to NASA. Instead, leveraging the commercial abilities of American companies such as SpaceX has kept the United States competitive and prevented the Chinese from gaining a technological edge.
If America is to stay ahead of China in artificial intelligence, our private sector will be the deciding factor.
The Defense Department’s AI chief, Radha Plumb, apparently agrees, saying: “The pointy end of the spear on this AI technology development is coming from private companies, often with commercial or dual-use cases in mind.”
As is always the case, emerging technologies will play a key role in future conflicts, so it’s imperative that America stays ahead.
