Israel soon could find itself locked into a multifront war against the terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas, a scenario that experts say the Israelis may need additional time to prepare for after a grueling conflict with Hamas that so far has lasted 10 months.
Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander Tuesday in an airstrike in Lebanon. Hours later, another strike in Iran killed the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh; Israel has not taken credit for that strike, but it prompted promises of revenge from Iran regardless.
Former U.S. officials and defense experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation said that while Israel is the chief military superpower in the Middle East, it urgently needs to restock its defensive and offensive systems to be truly prepared for another war.
“Israel does not have an infinite amount of interceptors, bombs, munitions. The military feels taxed, they’re feeling strained,” Gabriel Noronha, executive director at Polaris National Security and a former State Department official, said. “When I talk to Israeli officials, there’s a desire for them to have a little bit more time before they go to war … they want more time to replenish their stockpiles. They don’t feel quite ready for it today.”
Hezbollah, operating just north of Israel in Lebanon, has far greater manpower and access to weaponry than does Hamas or any of Iran’s other terror networks. While Hamas receives only about $120 million a year from Iran and $120 million a year from Qatar, Hezbollah receives over $700 million a year from Iran and makes additional hundreds of millions of dollars from illegal activities.
Hezbollah is estimated to possess somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000 operatives, including its elite Radwan fighting force. It also has access to over 150,000 rocket, missile, drone, and mortar variants.
Israel is ranked as one of the world’s top military powers, having access to high-level equipment and weapons, as well as a host of ground, aerial, and sea assets, according to the Global Firepower Index. IThe Jewish state maintains approximately 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reserve personnel.
Hezbollah has become increasingly hostile along Israel’s northern border, prompting Israeli officials to warn in recent weeks of a dramatic and escalatory response should attacks continue. In April, Iran and Israel directly engaged in conflict with each other in a rare confrontation that required U.S. and Western defensive intervention.
It isn’t immediately clear how Hezbollah or Iran intends to respond to the strikes Tuesday in Beirut and Tehran, although Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly will order a strike directly inside Israel, Iranian officials told The New York Times.
“It wouldn’t be the first time Israel has fought a war on multiple fronts, so that’s not the issue. The issue is the fact that Israel has been fighting a 10-month war … so the army needs a refractory period,” David Daoud, senior fellow on Middle Eastern affairs at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the DCNF. “You need to restock weapons and you need to harden critical infrastructure.”
Although war ultimately could arise, it’s possible that Hamas Gaza head Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will intervene to cool down temperatures and ward off a full-scale confrontation, Shoshana Bryen, senior director at the Jewish Policy Center, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“There are two possibilities—one is that, yes, things get hotter. The other is that Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah want to stay alive” and will therefore avoid a serious confrontation with Israel,” Bryen said. “If they don’t [avoid confrontation], then yes, there will come a point at which Israel will be stretched. No one knows the full extent of Israel’s capabilities, and so at some point, it will want to be able to call on its allies.”
Sinwar, elected as Hamas’ Gaza head in 2017, was a key player in establishing the terror organization decades ago, The New York Times reported. Like Sinwar, Nasrallah has decadeslong ties to Hezbollah, becoming the group’s head in 1992, NPR reported.
The U.S. would come to Israel’s defense in the event of a large-scale attack or invasion, which could factor into Iran and Hezbollah’s calculus, experts said.
The combined U.S. and Israeli effort could be enough to deter Hezbollah or Iran from striking Israel too harshly, although the Biden administration’s approach to foreign policy—criticized for appeasing Iran—may make Tehran believe it can get away with war, said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated Wednesday that the U.S. would be there to defend Israel should Iran attack the country in the way it did in April, The Times of Israel reported.
On the Hezbollah issue, however, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C.Q. Brown told reporters in June that the U.S. would have limited ability to intervene, given the environment on the ground.
“The Islamic Republic [of Iran] does not want to get involved in a direct conflict with the United States. If there’s a direct conflict between the U.S. and the Iranian regime, it could be a regime-ending situation. And they know it,” Brodsky said. “My concern is that the Biden administration appears crippled by fear of escalation, and if you’re constantly giving off that impression to an adversary, that makes the U.S. and its allies more vulnerable.”
U.S. officials have spent months working to lower the temperature in the Middle East, urging Israel to show restraint in going after its enemies while also maintaining a commitment to Israel’s defense. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday during a trip to Singapore that the U.S. was not warned in advance or involved in the strike against Haniyeh, Reuters reported.
The focus, Blinken said, remains on achieving a cease-fire in Gaza, which the U.S. hopes would extend to the broader region.
The Israeli prime minister’s office and Israel Defense Forces didn’t respond immediately to requests for comment.
Originally published by the Daily Caller News Foundation
