By rallying around Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats are setting themselves up for a replay of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat—and they’re OK with that.
As humiliating as Clinton’s loss to Donald Trump was, she didn’t drag down congressional Democrats, who gained six seats in the House and two in the Senate that year.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was hellbent on ending President Joe Biden’s reelection bid because she knew how much damage he’d do to down-ballot Democrats.
What she saw in the party’s internal polling was grounds for a coup.
The most vulnerable House and Senate Democrats, with good reason, were among the first and loudest to call for his ouster.
Biden didn’t step aside selflessly: His choice was between going down in flames while being blamed by his fellow Democrats for their losses, too, or dropping out and letting someone else bear responsibility for whatever happens.
Either way, he wasn’t headed back to the White House, so Biden opted to cut his losses.
Now that his dream of a second term is over, are Democrats ready for “what can be, unburdened by what has been”?
Not exactly—because Harris is burdened by everything Biden was except age.
And with Biden still in the Oval Office, Democrats can hardly say that Trump, younger and more cogent than the president, is too old for the job.
Nor can Harris run from the record of the administration she shares with Biden:
She owns all the inflation, illegal immigration, disgrace in Afghanistan, and inadequacy in confronting crises from Yemen to Ukraine that characterizes the past three years of Democratic government.
What does she bring that’s new?
She’s a woman, of course—but so was Secretary Clinton, who campaigned unsuccessfully on the prospect of being the first woman elected to the White House.
Clinton knew she might have a problem winning rural and working-class white men, so she chose a running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, with proven appeal to them.
It didn’t work:
Clinton lost Rust Belt states that had voted Democrat for decades.
If Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania didn’t take to Clinton, what are the chances they’ll find Kamala Harris more agreeable?
Clinton was formidable in Democratic primaries at least, overcoming Bernie Sanders in 2016 and putting up stiff resistance to Barack Obama in 2008.
Harris didn’t fare so well against Sanders, or anyone else, when she sought the nomination in 2020.
Polling in the single digits, she quit the race before the first contest.
Now Harris is fast-tracked for the nomination without having competed in—let alone having won—a single presidential primary.
Buoyed by friendly media, her numbers this time might look better in the short term, and the Democratic ticket will benefit from a fresh choice for running mate.
Yet none of Harris’ likely V.P. picks is much different from Kaine, who couldn’t rescue Clinton in the industrial heartland eight years ago.
Maybe Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would tip his state safely into the Democratic column.
By itself, that’s not enough—Trump only needs to win one of the three big Rust Belt battlegrounds, as long as his leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina hold up.
Other prospective Harris running mates, such as Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, are variations on the same theme: men meant to balance the ticket’s appeal, all as little known outside their states as Kaine was when he became Clinton’s veep pick.
Choosing Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would give Democrats the first two-woman ticket in presidential history, but aside from her sex, Whitmer fits the same pattern as the others.
Trump is by any measure stronger than he was when he beat Clinton and Kaine.
He’s gained presidential experience, and he’s survived two impeachments and an assassination attempt.
The only enemy ever to beat him, Joe Biden, imploded the second time he tried it.
Trump may have trained to take on Sleepy Joe, but he’s all the more ready for a repeat of 2016 if Democrats field a similar ticket.
Harris and her running mate might improve on the Clinton-Kaine formula, and in a country as closely divided as ours, winning is a game of inches.
But ditching Biden hasn’t changed the fundamentals of the presidential election, however much it may have helped down-ticket candidates.
Harris is running with Biden’s record and Hillary Clinton‘s profile—not a winning combination, but one the party’s bosses have decided to settle for.
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