THE CENTER SQUARE—New York’s population could decline by more than 2 million people over the next 25 years as fewer people are born in the state and more people move out, according to a new report.
The study by Cornell University’s Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy’s Program on Applied Demographics projects that New York faces a significant population decline due to low fertility rates and aging that has not been offset by new arrivals.
“The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline,” Jan Vink, lead analyst for the study, said in a statement. “Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely.”
Researchers found that the number of New Yorkers ages 0-17 is projected to drop between 10% and 25% over the next 25 years amid a decline in the number of births. Meanwhile, the state’s population is projected to decline from the current 19.7 million to about 17 million by 2050, mostly through outmigration, the researchers said.
The study, which was partially funded by the state of New York, comes as Albany leaders have become increasingly concerned about outmigration from the state and its potential impact on the economy. Bills seeking to improve the state’s business sector and boost its competitiveness are expected to be filed in the upcoming legislative session.
“Policymakers want to know to what extent the crystal ball of demography can project the future of New York state’s population so they can plan for the future,” Cornell Population Center Director Matt Hall said.
Experts say New York’s outmigration has less to do with politics than it does with a lack of housing, prevailing wages, and access to employment.
However, federal data shows that the population decline has major implications for the states, as well as revenue and tax collections. New York lost more than $14.1 billion in state-adjusted gross income between 2021 and 2022 as residents fled to New Jersey, Florida, and other low-tax states, according to the latest Internal Revenue Service data.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has blamed a lack of housing as the primary reason New Yorkers are fleeing the state, making the case for expanding housing stock and making existing homes more affordable.
But Republicans have long argued that New York’s outmigration is being driven largely by the state’s highest-in-the-nation tax burden, a business sector struggling under excessive regulations, and rising labor costs.
