Thanksgiving is upon us and, three weeks after Election Day, America STILL does not know the makeup of the incoming U.S. House.
Pathetic!
As of Tuesday at 11:22 p.m., The Associated Press reports Republicans have won 219 seats to the Democrats’ 213. At this writing, three seats remain uncalled:
- Democrat Adam Gray inched past Republican Rep. John Duarte by 182 votes in California’s 13th District, with 99% of ballots tallied. (For goodness’ sake, after 22 days, where the hell are those other votes?) Duarte led Gray by 207 votes as late as Tuesday afternoon, with 98% of ballots counted. Another 1% of votes turned up, and—Bang! Zoom!—the Democrat suddenly is on top. Here we go again.
- In California’s 45th District, Democrat Derek Tran is 613 votes ahead of GOP Rep. Michelle Steel.
- Iowa’s 1st District finds Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks edging Democrat Christina Bohannan by 800 votes.
If these margins hold, the new House should include 215 Democrats, 220 Republicans—a slim three-seat GOP majority.
But wait!
Florida Republican Matt Gaetz just ditched his seat after abandoning his nomination for U.S. attorney general. And Republican Mike Waltz of Florida will depart Jan. 20 to become President Donald J. Trump’s national security adviser.
These resignations have triggered Jan. 28 primaries and April 1 general elections.
These vacancies shrink the expected Republican conference to 218 seats.
It gets worse:
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is Trump’s choice for United Nations ambassador. Assuming a quick Senate confirmation, she would leave the House and commence diplomacy on Jan. 21.
Remaining GOP seats: 217.
Kathy “The Hack” Hochul—New York’s hapless, colorless Democrat governor—is in no rush to comfort Republicans. She likely will maximize GOP anxiety by scheduling the latest possible special election, 90 days hence: Tuesday, April 22.
If everything goes smoothly, the Republican House must govern between Inauguration Day and April Fools’ Day with 217 seats and three vacancies. If all 215 Democrats stay united, Republicans must vote unanimously, lest they drop beneath the 217 votes needed to pass anything.
This will turn every decision—from adopting budgets to approving each day’s Congressional Record—into a Hitchcockian thriller. If just one Republican oversleeps, gets sick, or endures flight delays, major legislation could crash and burn.
Any single Republican also could hijack the entire House until securing whatever ransom buys his or her cooperation.
Republicans also could squander “safe” special elections to fill these vacancies. For a cautionary tale, recall how then-Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., left in 2017 to become Trump’s first attorney general. His seat, in a stalwart-Republican state, was a lock. And then hints and allegations emerged about GOP nominee Roy Moore’s unusual habit of courting females as young as 14.
“I don’t remember ever dating any girl without the permission of her mother,” Moore assured Fox News host Sean Hannity. Suitably appalled voters sent liberal Democrat Doug Jones to the Senate—from Alabama!
History could repeat itself in any of these normally reliable GOP seats.
And yet another hazard light flashes:
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s surprisingly weak leadership has earned the scorn of GOP representatives Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Add one vote to their Nays and Gaetz’s absence, and the Louisiana Republican could lack the votes to regain the speakership. If so, the House would drift like a ghost ship for days or even weeks until a new captain arises. Meanwhile, Trump’s “America First” legislative agenda would bob aimlessly among the waves.
This tiny sliver of hope might help: Gaetz should change his mind and take back the seat that he defended on Nov. 5, 66% to 34%, over Democrat Gay Valimont. Gaetz then should chair a new Select Committee on Federal Injustice. It would detail the Justice Department’s violations of the U.S. Constitution, federal law, and its own regulations. These would include, but not be limited to, the FBI spying on Trump’s 2016 campaign, the FBI’s lies to the FISA court, the three-year Russia hoax, the Hunter Biden laptop cover-up, the FBI’s alleged inducement of Jan. 6 violence, the federal arm-twisting of Big Tech to censor and deplatform citizens, the surveillance of conservative Catholics, the designation of parents’ rights activists as domestic terrorists, and more.
While Gaetz no longer will cleanse DOJ’s Augean stable internally, he could present Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi the facts, dates, and—most important—names of the perpetrators behind these abuses. Bondi should dismiss and, where appropriate, prosecute these tyrants. This Florida Republican pincer movement would reinvigorate the constitutional and civil rights that DOJ and the FBI have battered since Trump descended his golden escalator in June 2015.
Thus, Gaetz could mitigate, by one seat, this entire fine mess left by Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., and the National Republican Congressional Committee, or NRCC. They should have secured a victory commensurate with Trump’s sweeping triumph and Senate Republicans’ 100% reelection of incumbents and conquest of four Democrat seats.
Hudson and the NRCC failed Trump and Republicans nationwide by botching an excellent opportunity to win a robust working House majority. Trump and Senate Republicans romped. Hudson and the NRCC barely survived.
Forthcoming details of their incompetence and pettiness will expose them as this Thanksgiving’s biggest turkeys.
