The Nov. 5 presidential election could be won or lost in Pennsylvania, and a recent Cygnal poll in the state’s key communities shows that Donald Trump may be in the driver’s seat.
In a poll released Oct. 3, Cygnal surveyed 420 likely general election voters in Pennsylvania’s two “bellwether counties,” Erie and Northampton. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, found:
- Trump, the Republican, narrowly led Erie and Northampton counties over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat. When voters were asked who they would vote for, 48.3% said Harris and 49.1% said Trump. (Another 2.7% of voters said they were undecided.
- When asked about the choice if Harris had chosen Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, voters chose Harris by a little over 1%, with roughly 4% undecided.
A poll released Oct. 8 by the Commonwealth Foundation, a Pennsylvania-based think tank, found that over half of 800 registered voters surveyed said their economic concerns are worsening. In addition, 57 out of every 100 surveyed said the state “has gotten off on the wrong track.”
Among the Commonwealth Foundation’s key findings among Pennsylvanian voters:
- Voters chose Harris over Trump by 50% to 46%, with 4% undecided.
- Fully 46% of voters said the Republican Party’s economic policies are better for the economy, compared with 44% who said the Democratic Party’s economic policies are better. This, however, is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
- Over half of voters said they disapprove of the job performance of Harris’ boss, President Joe Biden.
- 78% of voters said they are concerned about the future availability of affordable energy in the U.S.
- 81% of Democrats said Harris would do a better job of protecting fracking, while 89% of Republicans said Trump would do better.
Pennsylvania voters appeared to be most concerned about bread-and-butter issues such as the economy and the country’s future, according to the Commonwealth Foundation.
In a press release, Commonwealth Foundation Senior Vice President Erik Telford said candidates in Pennsylvania need to define themselves as ready to take on financial and economic insecurity.
“Candidates and elected officials must remain aware of the economic and financial pressures on individuals and families,” Telford said. “Policies that make things worse or threaten their financial futures will get little support. Policies that grow our economy and promote financial security, such as promoting energy development, are clear winners.”
Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. In his 2016 contest against Hillary Clinton, Trump won the crucial swing state by 0.7% of the vote.
The number of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania has declined by 4.3% since 2016. In contrast, the state has seen a 2.4% increase in registered Republicans as Trump seeks to reclaim the White House.
“With one month left until Election Day, it’s clear two factors will dominate these races,” the Commonwealth Foundation’s Telford said. “First, how candidates speak to voters’ economic concerns. Second, and perhaps more importantly, turnout will play a decisive factor, especially among independent voters.”
