Many on the Left suggest that concerns about illegal aliens casting votes in a presidential election are unfounded. After all, illegal aliens can’t legally vote. Yet a new poll suggests that most Americans expect that illegal aliens will be allowed to vote in the Nov. 5 election.
When asked, “How likely is it that a large number of illegal immigrants will be allowed to vote in this year’s elections?” more than half of respondents (56%) said it is “very likely” (27%) or “somewhat likely” (27%). About a third (36%) said it is “somewhat likely” (17%) or “not very likely” (19%), while 1 in 10 said they weren’t sure.
Most self-identified Republicans (79%) said it was “somewhat likely” (36%) or “very likely” (43%) that illegal aliens would be allowed to vote, but even a sizable number of Democrats (30%) agreed, saying it is “somewhat likely” (19%) or “very likely” (11%). More than half of independents (53%) said it was “somewhat likely” (24%) or “very likely” (29%).
The vast majority of respondents (75%) said they either “strongly oppose” (60%) or “somewhat oppose” (15%) “allowing people who are not U.S. citizens to vote in elections for the president and members of Congress.”
About a fifth (19%) of respondents said they “strongly favor” (8%) or “somewhat favor” (11%) allowing noncitizens to vote. Self-identified Democrats proved most likely to support noncitizen voting, although only 25% of them said they did. Independents proved least likely to support it, at 84%. Self-identified Republicans also opposed it, at 82%.
A recent study from Just Facts estimates that 10%-27% of noncitizens are registered to vote, and based on previous elections and federal data, at least 1-2.7 million noncitizens will vote in the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Since 2021, border authorities have apprehended approximately 10 million illegal aliens at the U.S.-Mexico border, and authorities know that at least 1.66 million illegal aliens got away from authorities from fiscal year 2021 (which started in October 2020) through fiscal year 2023.
Many of these “gotaways” don’t stay in the country; neither do some of those who are arrested crossing the border illegally. Even so, if a mere fraction of these illegal aliens vote, their ballots may make a key difference in a close election.
Joe Biden’s margin of victory over Donald Trump in the 2020 election came down to less than 50,000 votes in three key states—Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin—in an election when more than 155 million Americans cast ballots.
Although most Americans in the poll expressed concern about illegal aliens being allowed to vote, a majority expressed confidence that the proper winner will be decided in the 2024 election.
Most respondents (67%) said they were “somewhat confident” (31%) or “very confident” (36%) that “the votes will be accurately counted and the proper winners declared.” About a third (31%) said they were “not very confident” (19%) or “not at all confident” (12%) about this. Self-identified Democrats (86%) expressed more faith in election administration than Republicans (51%) and independents (53%).
Republicans and Democrats pointed to opposite concerns when it comes to honest elections.
Pollsters asked, “Which is the bigger problem with election fraud, too many non-voters are allowed to vote, or too many legitimate voters are prevented from voting?”
More Americans (45%) identified illegal voting as the problem, while a large minority (36%) said disenfranchisement of legal voters was the bigger issue. Most self-identified Republicans (71%) identified illegal voting as the key issue, while some (19%) pointed to disenfranchisement. More than half of Democrats (56%) said disenfranchisement is the main issue, while about a fifth (21%) of them pointed to illegal voting.
Independents (46%) pointed to illegal voting, although some (21%) also pointed to disenfranchisement.
Leftists deride measures such as those requiring identification to vote as “voter suppression,” claiming that some voters are unable to present ID.
Most of the poll’s respondents (87%) said they favor requiring ID to vote, with 63% saying they “strongly favor” it. Majorities of self-identified Republicans (94%), Democrats (81%), and independents (81%) said they favor voter ID, although Democrats proved more likely to “somewhat favor” it (30%) than other groups (19% of Republicans and 14% of independents).
RMG Research surveyed 1,000 registered voters between Wednesday and Thursday of last week; the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
