Israel and Lebanon’s militant group—and Iranian terror proxy—Hezbollah seem set to reach a temporary ceasefire deal, despite increased conflict over the weekend.
The Israeli cabinet will meet Tuesday to discuss the prospect of a 60-day truce.
The Israel Defense Forces reported that on Sunday, Hezbollah launched 250 rockets across the border from Lebanon into Israel, making it one of the largest attacks on Israel since the eruption of conflict in September.
The attacks followed an Israeli military airstrike on Beirut Saturday that took out a building and killed 20 in what was reportedly an attempt to assassinate a top Hezbollah military commander.
Amid all the back-and-forth, one expert cut through the noise.
“I don’t think anybody has any illusions that Lebanon has a functioning government at this point or that Hezbollah is a good-faith negotiating partner,” Victoria Coates, a former deputy national security adviser to President Donald Trump during his first term and current vice president of the Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation, told The Daily Signal.
Coates noted that this ceasefire deal could “blow up.” Most likely, it would be an agreement that is “not durable or effective.”
Such a deal would mean that the Lebanese army would move south and the Israel Defense Forces would withdraw over a 60-day period, according to Coates.
She remarked that leaks from both U.S. and Israeli officials notified the public about the likely ceasefire, which might be approached honestly by Lebanon, though “nobody thinks Hezbollah is negotiating in good faith, so there are no guarantees of what they’re going to do.”
The United States has provided a letter with assurances to Israel that it will support Israel if additional action against Hezbollah is needed, according to Coates.
She said that the Biden administration no longer has “any credibility on the international stage anymore, because they’ll be gone in 56 days,” and that this peace negotiation is a “kick the can down the road arrangement” as the world waits for the Trump administration to “see what’s actually possible.”
Coates argued that if Trump were currently in office, a ceasefire would be unnecessary, as the conflict would not have erupted at all.
When asked if Iran’s terrorist proxies, like Hezbollah, would be this powerful had Trump been in office the last four years, Coates responded, “Absolutely not. And that is not just according to my judgment.”
She referenced one 2019 New York Times article that quotes former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah saying that American sanctions were “a form of war.” In the same statement, Nasrallah pleaded for financial support of jihad—to which U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said “was the first time in history they’ve had to do that.”
One Iranian-backed fighter in Syria lamented in the same New York Times article that “the golden days are gone and will never return.”
The Israeli military conducted successful airstrikes on Hezbollah in September, killing Nasrallah and several of his top commanders.
Coates said that the incoming Trump administration will need to resolve this crisis in the Middle East and that would be “best for the whole region—not just Israel.”