Will Trump Play Kingmaker in Senate Leadership Elections?
Bradley Devlin /
While the dust is still settling from the 2024 election, Senate Republicans are tasked with choosing who will lead them in their new majority.
Thanks to wins in Senate races in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, a Republican majority in the Senate is guaranteed. But there are still outstanding races that raise questions about representation in, and timing of, Senate leadership elections.
Three key Senate races in swing states carried by President-elect Donald Trump in his win are yet to be called.
In Arizona, with about 70% of the votes counted, Republican Kari Lake trails Democrat Ruben Gallego by two percentage points in the Senate race. In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown is within a point of upsetting incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. And in Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick leads incumbent Democrat Bob Casey by less than 0.5%. (At about 4:20 p.m. Thursday, Fox News called the race for McCormick over Casey, 48.9% to 48.5%, just after The Associated Press did so.)
It could take another week or more for the remaining votes to be counted. All three states could head to a recount, depending on each state’s rules for requesting a recount.
Meanwhile, the internal conference election for GOP leadership positions in the Senate, conducted by secret ballot, is scheduled for Nov. 13.
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who is stepping down from leadership, is tasked with organizing the internal elections along with Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, who also is running for Republican whip.
A lack of clarity on the Senate races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada ultimately could result in a delay of the leadership elections, and likely should. Moving too quickly could disenfranchise crucial new members of the GOP conference who would come to Washington on the promise to deliver not only on their own policies but also on Trump’s second-term agenda.
Barring any major twists, Republican senators will choose from among South Dakota’s John Thune, Texas’ John Cornyn, and Florida’s Rick Scott to succeed McConnell atop the Senate GOP conference.
The Daily Signal asked Scott how the three outstanding races affect the Senate leadership elections.
“President Trump won with a mandate from the American people for real change and the Trump agenda,” Scott told The Daily Signal. “I made clear from the moment I announced my run for leader that I was 100% focused on making sure President Trump has an ally and partner in the Senate to execute his agenda and fundamentally change Washington so that it delivers on his agenda and works for the American people again.”
“President Trump’s massive win shows the American people want change in Washington. We need to make sure we can get our senators-elect up to Washington and engaged with the conference before we vote,” Scott said of his leadership race with Thune and Cornyn.
“For too long, the Senate leadership has operated as a dictatorship, which weakens the conference by shutting out our talented and hardworking Republican senators,” he said.
Some observers caution that there could be a major twist in the form of a Trump endorsement. Although the president-elect has yet to weigh in on the Senate leadership race, some senators are aggressively pushing him to do so.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told The First that he would like Trump “to come out publicly and say he wants to work with someone as accomplished as Rick Scott to accomplish his agenda.”
“We have to deliver,” Johnson said. “We need outside-the-box, paradigm-shifting type of thinking in the United States Senate.”
The Daily Signal asked Johnson to speak further about this.
“Rick Scott is an extraordinary and accomplished individual who will work well with President Trump to fulfill his agenda,” Johnson told The Daily Signal. “We need a proven leader who has been successful in everything he’s done, including winning his election with the votes of almost 6 million Floridians.”
Scott himself told The Daily Signal: “President Trump should play whatever role he wants to in this [leadership] race, and I welcome his involvement. When I called him before I announced my run for leader in May, I told him that I would be honored to have his endorsement.”
Six months later, Scott said, he feels the same way.
“I have known President Trump for 25 years, before either one of us was elected to office. I was proud to endorse him early in his races, be the first senator to stand beside him in the Manhattan courtroom and fight back against the lawfare Democrats waged in that sham trial, and be the only candidate for leader that spoke at the RNC,” Scott told The Daily Signal.
“I made clear from the moment I announced my run for leader that I was 100% focused on making sure President Trump has an ally and partner in the Senate to execute his agenda and fundamentally change Washington so that it delivers on his agenda and works for the American people again,” the Florida Republican said.
In an interview Wednesday on Fox Business, Scott said he remains confident that he’ll become Senate majority leader and that members “know that Trump has a mandate.”
“They want to be a part of that mandate,” Scott said. “They want to be treated as equals, they want to be part of a team, they want to have a working relationship with the House. They know I’ve got a great working relationship with Trump [and] with Speaker Mike Johnson.”
One of Scott’s opponents, Thune, says Trump could play a big role, but might decide against it.
“[Trump] obviously has tremendous influence, if he chooses to use it,” Thune told Fox News on Wednesday. “It’s his prerogative to weigh in on that. Frankly, I think if he lets it play out, we’ll get the right person.”
Nevertheless, in a public statement congratulating Trump and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, now vice president-elect, Thune expressed his excitement to work with the incoming Republican presidential administration.
“The incoming Senate Republican majority will work hand in hand with the Trump-Vance administration to lower costs for families, secure our southern border, and renew America’s energy dominance,” Thune said. “The work begins now.’’
Yet, during a interview Thursday morning on CBS, Thune revisited Trump’s potential impact on the Senate leadership race.
“I’ve stayed in regular contact with him and with his team and you know, obviously, if he wants to he could exert a considerable amount of influence on that,” Thune said. “But honestly, I think my preference would be, and I think it’s probably in his best interest, [for him to] to stay out of that.”
“These Senate secret ballot elections are probably best left to the senators, and he’s got to work with all of us when it’s all said and done,” Thune added.
Cornyn, meanwhile, released a public statement after Republicans captured the Senate majority that focused on potential reforms to Senate business under his prospective leadership.
“From my experience both as Whip advancing President Trump’s agenda through the Senate to serving as a rank-and-file member now, I have learned what works and what does not,” Cornyn said. “We will restore the important role of Senate committees and reestablish the regular appropriations process. We will improve communication, increase transparency, and tap into the wealth of talent in the conference to include everyone’s expertise and opinions. And we will return power back to the members; there will be no more backroom deals or forced votes on bills without adequate time for review, debate, and amendment.”
“As I’ve said, this election is not about us but rather what is best for the [Senate GOP] conference and the nation,” the Texas Republican added.
It’s possible that Trump will opt not to endorse a candidate in the Senate leadership race, but instead press Barrasso and McConnell to delay the election. This would guarantee that Trump has as many MAGA-mold, fresh Republican senators as possible voting in the interests of his second administration, which takes over Jan. 20.
If McConnell rebuffs this hypothetical request from Trump, he’s likely to get a Republican conference even more willing to turn its back on his leadership style.
How the Senate leadership candidates navigate unsettled races and Trump’s involvement could well be a window on how they would run the conference in the first two years of Trump’s second term: Will reforms empower senators and the Trump agenda, or will it be more of the same?