House, Senate, Electoral College: What to Watch on Election Day 

Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell / Virginia Allen / Fred Lucas / Kristen Eichamer /

Seven swing states are too close to call headed into Election Day, Nov. 5. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, spent much of the last month vying for votes among the states that are expected to determine who the next president will be. 

Polls indicate Trump and Harris are neck and neck in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within each swing state are several counties that are also too close to call and could be the deciding factors in who wins each state.  

Control of the House of Representatives and the Senate also hang in the balance this election, with close races in several states expected to determine whether Congress will flip for the next two years, and if one party might enjoy control of both chambers.  

Below are all the states and races to watch on Election Day.

Arizona 

Electoral Votes: 11 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Georgia 

Electoral Votes: 16 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Michigan  

Electoral Votes: 15 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch

Wild Card:  

The Muslim vote in Michigan could largely determine the state’s election night results. Muslim leaders have rallied Wolverine State voters to deny Harris their vote in protest of the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas that has left thousands dead in Gaza. It is not clear, however, that Muslim voters will back Trump in any significant way if they choose not to support Harris. Many have expressed support for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.  

Nevada  

Electoral Votes: 6 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Wild Card: 

Nevada has a large Hispanic population and about a third of Clark County is Hispanic. Trump has made inroads with Hispanic voters, especially male Hispanic voters this election.  

North Carolina 

Electoral Votes: 16 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Pennsylvania  

Electoral Votes: 19 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Wisconsin 

Electoral Votes: 10 

2020 Results:  

Counties to Watch: 

Senate Races to Watch  

There are 33 U.S. Senate seats up for regular election in 2024.  

Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the Senate. Fifty-one senators are in the working coalition of Democrats and independents. 

Republicans have an advantage this election cycle, however, as Democrats are defending 23 of those seats, while Republicans are only defending 11. To win the Senate, Republicans need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House, or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House, as the vice president breaks ties in the Senate.  

Here are seven Senate races to watch:  

House Races to Watch:  

Republicans hold a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies. All 435 seats are up for election. Democrats need a net gain of six districts to win a majority in the chamber, while Republicans can only lose a net of five districts to maintain their majority. They will need to pick up one or more districts to increase their majority. 

Democratic Toss-Ups 

Republican Toss-Ups 

When Will Races Be Called?

States vary on when the deadlines for certifying election results or auditing the vote. The website VoteFair2024.com, a project of the Election Integrity Network, lists the deadlines for each state—with a focus on the seven battleground states.  

The Daily Signal will bring you “Top News In Ten” and a longer version of “The Tony Kinnett Cast” on Election Day, so be sure to tune in to catch the news of the day and follow along with us as we break down this historic election.

Editor’s note: This piece has been updated to include the “When Will Races Be Called?” section.