Postdebate Polling Flips Legacy Media Narrative on Its Head
S.A. McCarthy /
Ahead of Tuesday night’s debate, most commentators and voters alike anticipated that former President Donald Trump’s and Vice President Kamala Harris’ performances would do little to sway voters one way or the other, but a series of recent polls suggests otherwise.
On Thursday, Trump released internal polling data targeting seven battleground states, showing an increase in support for the man vowing to “Make America Great Again.”
Conducted by veteran Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, the survey found a two-point increase in support for Trump following the debate, and no increase for Harris. In a six-way contest featuring Trump, Harris, and a handful of independent and third-party candidates, the poll found that Trump and Harris were tied at 46% support each prior to the debate, but Trump pulled ahead to 48% support following the debate. Likewise, while Trump and Harris were tied at 48% each in a one-on-one contest ahead of the debate, Trump’s support increased to 50% following the debate, while Harris’ support dropped to 47%.
“These are largely Independent Voters, who are tired of watching our Country go down, and want to, [Make America Great Again]!” Trump observed in his social media post publicizing the polling information.
In a memo accompanying the polling results, Fabrizio wrote, “We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming win for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat. The only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.”
The pollster added, “Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris’s empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn’t be farther from the truth.”
Another postdebate poll, this one from Insider Advantage, shows Trump leading Harris in hotly contested Michigan, where the 45th president leads the incumbent vice president by one point (49% to 48%).
Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery explained, “While there remains some enthusiasm gap in many of these states, with an advantage to Democrats, Michigan has no gap whatsoever. The candidates are basically tied in every age demographic, with Trump slightly ahead among independents.”
An Insider Advantage survey prior to the debate found Harris leading in Michigan by two points (49% to 47%), so that the postdebate polling represents a three-point swing away from Harris.
A series of focus group interviews in the immediate aftermath of the debate also indicated burgeoning support for Trump, especially among independent and undecided voters. Reuters surveyed 10 undecided voters after the debate and found that 6 of the 10 had decided to back Trump, while only three supported Harris; one remained undecided.
Referring to the newly-minted Trump supporters, Reuters explained, “Four of those six also said Harris did not convince them she would pursue different economic policies than Democratic President Joe Biden, a Democrat they largely blame for the high cost of living.”
The New York Times also reported that undecided voters were unimpressed with Harris’ debate performance, with many siding with Trump throughout the debate. Fox News found that independent voters tracked almost entirely with Republicans during the debate, aligning with Trump’s positions on inflation, immigration, and other issues. A CNN survey found that Trump had a 20-point postdebate lead over Harris on economic issues and a 23-point lead on immigration issues.
Numerous other polls have found that a majority of Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the state of the nation under the Biden-Harris administration.
A Napolitan News Service survey found that nearly 60% of Americans believe that they were better off four years ago, under Trump’s presidency, than they are today. Two-thirds of respondents also said that their income “has been falling behind” and not keeping up with inflation.
A Pew Research poll discovered that 74% of Americans are “very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods,” while concerns over the cost of housing have increased nearly 10 points just over the past year.
A New York Times/Siena College poll reported that nearly two-thirds (63%) of likely voters directly fault Harris for the ongoing illegal immigration crisis.