Experts, Media Got It Wrong: The Economy Is in Far Worse Shape Than We Thought

Erick Erickson / August 23, 2024

The government, for the past year, has overstated joblessness by 818,000 jobs. That revision comes on top of the monthly revisions already made. It is probably not a conspiracy to help Joe Biden and Kamala Harris look good or they would have waited until after the election, not before early voting, to announce the revision. But it is troubling that the government data was off by so much and equally as troubling that politicians and the press together have lectured Americans that the public did not know what they knew.

Last week, former CNN host Don Lemon went to Atlantic City, New Jersey, to interview people on the boardwalk about the election. One man said he made more money under Donald Trump. Lemon proceeded to tell the man he was wrong because “the data” show Americans are doing better now. Lemon behaved like much of the press and so many Democratic politicians.

If you tell the press you are worse off now than you were four years ago, the press claim you have been spun into believing lies. But the lie was that the economy and job creation were far better than they were. Americans knew. The experts got it wrong and the press enforced groupthink by the expert class. Where once an American’s lived experience had to be accurately captured by the press, when that experience conflicts with the popular narrative, the narrative must prevail over the truth.

The narrative, these days, favors whatever it will take to keep Trump out of office. The narrative is we have won the fight against inflation as a nation. Never mind that salaries are only starting to grow again and prices are still increasing, just not as fast. A 3% increase after a 30% increase is not much of a victory for working Americans. It is everything to the Democrat elite and press.

The pattern is consistent. Americans should not believe their eyes or experience. They should believe what they are told. Only when everyone collectively sees the same thing at the same time does it become too inconvenient for the press and politicians to keep lying. Everyone seeing Biden onstage at the CNN debate was just much too much. He had to be discarded. But pay no attention to the same people tossing Biden overboard begging Biden, only a year ago, to replace Harris because of her weaknesses as a candidate.

This week, Americans are being told the “vibe” has shifted to Harris and the Democrats are back. We are, at best, back to polling in February that had a tied race and key swing states leaning to the Republicans. Pay no attention to Trump historically outperforming his polling by a few percentage points. Pay attention only to the shift to Harris. Pay no attention to Tim Walz’s lies about his family’s use of IVF, his military record, the arrest rates in Minneapolis after the 2020 riots, or how long he kept kids out of Minnesota schools. But pay extreme attention to JD Vance going to Yale, just not to how he got there or from whence he came.

The elite and press are beclowning themselves. The Bureau of Labor Statistics performs an annual audit of data in August every year looking back over the prior year’s data to make sure its numbers are accurate. Financial institutions have known for some time the numbers would come back and be revised downward substantially after month-over-month annual revisions downward. Still, the government’s revision was the largest revision in the data since 2009.

Reporters lecturing Americans on how well off they are even if they do not feel like it should probably pause a bit and reflect. They will not, of course. They never do. Meanwhile, Republicans have yet another issue that they can put forward to the public. The economy has not been firing on all cylinders. Fewer jobs were created than claimed. And Harris’ first day on the job was three-and-a-half years ago.

The message matters. The “vibe” may favor the Democrats. The data favors Republicans. But Republicans must press their advantage.

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