Likely Harris Nomination Dampens Enthusiasm of Swing State Dems
S.A. McCarthy /
Democratic Party elites have all but coronated Vice President Kamala Harris as their new presidential nominee, after pushing President Joe Biden out of his own reelection campaign. But even so-called mainstream media outlets warn that she may not succeed against former President Donald Trump.
A recent New York Times analysis piece ranked Harris as the least likely to beat Trump out of a slate of 10 Democratic stars and stalwarts.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was rated as the most likely Democrat candidate to beat Trump, followed by Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Harris, meanwhile, was rated as the riskiest choice to oppose Trump and a less exciting candidate for the Democratic base than Whitmer, Kelly, Shapiro, or Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia.
Eight New York Times writers and contributors were asked to assess the potential nominees. Left-wing journalist Ross Barkan noted that Harris has “a feeble electoral track record—she struggled badly in 2020 and barely, before then, won her first attorney general race in California.” But he observed that the backing of a unified Democratic Party may give Harris a potential boost in voter enthusiasm.
Ex-Republican Josh Barro wrote that Harris “has no demonstrated appeal to swing voters, and she cannot run away from the Biden-Harris record on inflation and immigration. Her best arguments are that she’s not old and she’s not Trump.” However, Barro anticipated that those two qualities may appeal to Democratic voters.
Ross Douthat, a contributing editor at National Review, summarized Harris by saying: “A mediocre politician from a deep-blue state with low national approval ratings, she may find a way to win, but she would be nobody’s top choice were she not the top choice of the president. Relief at Biden’s exit will generate a lot of professed enthusiasm, but it will be fake.”
Pamela Paul, former editor of The New York Times Book Review, called Harris “one of the weakest elements of [Biden’s] administration” and “a fundamentally weak candidate.”
“She fizzled out early in her first presidential run and floundered in the vice presidency,” Paul said.
A YouGov poll published Sunday found that Harris’ popularity as a nominee is low, even within her own party. Overall, a mere 37% of American voters responded that Harris should be the Democratic Party’s nominee.
Among Democrats, 60% said they supported Harris as their nominee, with a total of 40% either opposed to her or unsure of her. A paltry 30% of independent voters said they approved of Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee, while 36% wanted “someone else,” and 34% were “not sure.”
Numerous other polls have shown that, even bolstered by what Trump team pollster Tony Fabrizio called the “Harris Honeymoon” polling bump, the vice president is trailing behind the Republican nominee.
A Morning Consult survey showed Trump leading Harris by two percentage points (47% to 45%) nationally. A Quinnipiac poll found similar numbers, with Trump leading Harris 49% to 47%. However, Trump’s lead over Harris is even more commanding among independent voters: 55% to 41%.
Even among young voters (ages 18 to 34), Trump leads Harris by nearly 20 points, according to Quinnipiac. This despite the vice president’s inundating the internet with TikTok and Instagram videos of herself dancing at political events in what Axios called an effort to appeal to Gen Z voters.
Prior to Biden’s abandoning the presidential race, a Harris X poll found that Trump had a nine-point lead over Harris (50% to 41%) in a then-hypothetical head-to-head contest.
Furthermore, polls indicate that Harris will have particular difficulty in battleground states. Prior to Biden’s dropping out of the race, but clearly anticipating the event, Emerson College asked swing state voters whether Harris “has earned the right to be the next Democratic nominee for president.”
A clear majority of voters responded “no” in Arizona (58%), Georgia (58.6%), Michigan (57.3%), Nevada (54.1%), North Carolina (56.9%), Pennsylvania (56.7%), and Wisconsin (58.2%).
Another Emerson College survey found that while Trump polled 46% to 43% against Biden nationally, he polled 49% to 43% against Harris in a then-hypothetical matchup.
The Democratic political action committee Clean and Prosperous America also found in a series of polls that Trump is leading Harris across swing states. The former president leads the vice president by six points (46% to 40%) in Arizona, five points (46% to 41%) in Michigan, two points (45% to 43%) in Pennsylvania, and four points (48% to 44%) in North Carolina.
According to the Washington Examiner, Keystone State Democrats are disappointed with Harris as the party’s likely nominee. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., criticized party elites for betraying Biden, even as Shapiro, the governor, offered Harris his full support and endorsement.
The Washington Examiner reported that T.J. Rooney, former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said that “if you thought Hillary Clinton had problems connecting with the all-important smaller Pennsylvania counties in 2016—the ones such as Erie that ultimately cost her the election—Harris, because of her views on fossil fuels, will struggle even more so.”
Rooney explained that Harris’ “worldview,” especially her position on fracking, will negatively affect her chances in the crucial battleground state. Keystone College political science professor Jeff Brauer said that with Harris replacing Biden at the top of the ticket, “the chances for Democrats in this all-critical state certainly diminish.” He explained that Harris’s policies are “too liberal” and that if she is the nominee, then Pennsylvania will be an even more difficult win for Democrats.
According to The Hill, swing state Democrats are also concerned that Harris’ demonstrably liberal policies could hurt Democratic candidates in contentious states and districts.
“Democratic senators had worried that lack of voter enthusiasm for Biden would hurt Democratic turnout in Senate battleground states,” The Hill wrote. “Democrats don’t know for sure whether Harris as their nominee for president will drive minority and young voters to the polls in significantly higher numbers than Biden would have in November.”
The Trump campaign has already started hammering Harris on her left-wing policies and positions. A recent spate of ads labels the vice president as “Weak. Failed. Dangerously liberal.” Particular emphasis is laid on Harris’s failure to secure the nation’s southern border after being named Biden’s “border czar” in 2021.
“I think she is going to be, hopefully, frankly for this country, I think similar things are going to happen to her that happened to her before,” Trump told reporters Tuesday during a conference call, referring to Harris’ failed attempt to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2019.
“So, if she campaigns that way now, and this is only going to be tougher—although she does have a lot of support from the fake news, there’s no question about that—but if she campaigns the way she campaigned then, I suspect she won’t be too tough,” Trump said.
The former president also observed that Harris is “the same as Biden but much more radical.”
“This country doesn’t want a radical left person to destroy it,” Trump said. “She’s far more open borders than he is. She wants things that nobody wants. … Take a look at San Francisco now compared to before she became the district attorney, and you see what she’ll do to our country.”
Trump added: “I think she’ll be easier than Biden because he was slightly more mainstream, but not by much.”
Originally published by The Washington Stand