In the wake of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, including reports that the Taliban may now control more territory than they have at any time in the last 14 years, the U.S. must maintain current troop levels through 2016, and even consider increasing them.
U.S. Commander of Afghanistan General John Campbell made clear last month that he wants President Barack Obama to maintain the current level of troops (9,800) for as long as possible, rather than draw down to 5,500 by the end of the year as currently planned.
Explaining his position, which is likely to face some resistance from within the White House, Campbell said, “If we don’t stay engaged here to build their capacity to fight this, keep sanctuary down, it’s coming back to the homeland.”
In mid-October, shortly after the Taliban’s capture of the northern Afghan city of Kunduz, Obama reversed his earlier pledge to withdraw all U.S. forces, except those necessary to protect the U.S. Embassy, by the end of 2016. He said the U.S. instead would keep a force level of 5,500 U.S. troops in the country when he departs office in Jan. 2017. While his announcement was a step in the right direction, he should have dropped all arbitrary deadlines for withdrawal.
The Taliban leadership seems determined to achieve territorial gains and further weaken the will of the Afghan security forces and their coalition partners through escalating attacks before they will engage in genuine reconciliation talks with the Afghan government.
According to a report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, the insurgents are making unprecedented territorial gains throughout the country and even threatening key provincial capitals. Just yesterday the Taliban claimed responsibility for a truck bombing of a compound for civilian contractors near the Kabul airport, wounding at least 30.
Despite these challenges, there are stresses on the insurgents as well. The Taliban have started to fracture following news last summer that Taliban Supremo Mullah Omar died well over two years ago. The so-called Islamic State (ISIS) has also begun to make gains, mostly in eastern Afghanistan, in part by taking advantage of dissension among Taliban leaders.
Given the state of flux in Afghanistan and the dual terrorist threats the U.S. faces from the al-Qaeda-backed Taliban movement and ISIS, it would be a mistake for the U.S. to draw down forces from Afghanistan this year. Now, more than ever, the Afghan government needs and deserves U.S. and NATO support.
General Campbell seems to understand this. Let’s hope he can convince the White House.
