Despite Current Friction, Taliban and ISIS Could Eventually Merge Forces in Afghanistan

In a letter addressed to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State, or ISIS, and released to journalists this week, the Taliban warned against an ISIS role in Afghanistan, urging the group not to take actions that could lead to “division of the Mujahideen’s command.”

An effort since late last year by ISIS to establish influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan has complicated the militant landscape and is contributing to instability in the region. ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing outside a bank in Jalalabad on April 18 that killed 35. A Taliban spokesman denied any involvement in the attack and condemned it.

For now, the Islamic State is a direct competitor for recruits, financing and ideological influence of the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda, but U.S. policymakers must be alert to the potential for ISIS to merge with the Taliban in the future and thus play a greater role in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The reports of clashes between ISIS militants and the Taliban in eastern and southern Afghanistan in recent months have been accompanied by other reports that say ISIS and the Taliban fought together against Afghan security forces in Kunduz in April, when the insurgents came close to overrunning Kunduz city.

There has not yet been an official reaction from ISIS to the Taliban letter. Whatever public response ISIS leaders may craft, it is doubtful the group will give up altogether on its goal of making inroads into the region. ISIS leaders may recognize that supplanting the Taliban as the major fighting force in Afghanistan is currently an unrealistic goal, given the Taliban’s ethnic ties and long-standing presence in the region.

Instead, ISIS may try to gain influence in the region by making common cause with the Taliban and seeking to lure it from its alliance with al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri recently reaffirmed support for Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar as “Commander of the Faithful,” a title to which ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has staked a rival claim. And for now, the Afghan Taliban remains closely allied with al-Qaeda.

But ISIS success in gaining territory in Iraq and Syria is indisputable, and the Taliban will have to carefully manage the competition from ISIS in Afghanistan. An Afghan Taliban commander commented to the Western media in May that elements of ISIS had started recruiting in the country and were moving in groups of a few dozen, conducting military exercises. He said Taliban commanders are aware their fighters are impressed with the territorial gains ISIS has made in Iraq and Syria.

The U.S. must watch this space closely and take advantage of any opportunity presented by the current Taliban-ISIS friction in Afghanistan to undermine the extremist ideologies of both organizations. A Taliban-ISIS merger seems unlikely at present, but it is not out of the realm of possibility and is a scenario the U.S. should be prepared to confront.