Why isn’t the 2014 mid-term election more interesting? Control of Congress hangs in the balance, but there’s just something lacking this year.
Next to die-hard politicos who follow every poll and race, or folks who live in a state with a contested Senate race, how many Americans could actually name one of the current Senate match-ups? Quick: Ernst vs. Braley? Sullivan vs. Begich? Tillis vs. Hagan? (Anwers: Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina)
Not that most Senate races become household discussions, but in years past certain candidates, races or political strategies have always managed to make their way to the national stage. In 2010 there was Delaware Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell’s campaign spot where she infamously stated, “I am not a witch.” In 2012, Missouri Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin made a huge gaffe with his unnecessary and controversial comments about rape and pregnancy. Both those hiccups became national news.
Forget about individual candidates. This year, neither political party seems able to make waves. Democrats, for example, need single women to turn out in a big way if they have any hope of holding the Senate. They got that in 2012 when they turned their “Sandra Fluke” moment into a full-blown “war on women” meme that they successfully used against Republicans up and down the ballot.
Some have tried the same tactic again this year, but it just hasn’t caught on. According to a recent article in The Hill, the Senate race in Colorado, a purple state, is an example. Democrat Mark Udall has made this a central theme of his campaign — to the point that, in last Tuesday’s debate with Republican challenger Cory Gardner, the moderator referred to him by the moniker “Mark Uterus.” As of this writing, Udall trails Gardner in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
For Republicans, strong opposition to Obamacare and the fact it had been rammed through both chambers of Congress with the support only of Democrats led to the rise of the Tea Party in 2010 and the takeover of the House by the GOP. Obamacare remains unpopular, but neither it nor any other single issue seems to be rallying the conservative base or independent voters toward Republicans so strongly this time around.
President Obama’s approval ratings are at historic lows, and most polls show huge majorities of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. So it’s not surprising that Republicans have done their best to make this a national election — a referendum on Obama and his policies. But that was their strategy two years ago when President Obama was actually on the ballot, and we know how that turned out.
Obama is less popular now, and that has certainly made the ground more fertile for GOP Senate candidates in states like Arkansas and Louisiana that have been trending Republican at the presidential level for years, but where famous family names and tradition have allowed Democrats to hold on to a couple of Senate seats. So far, though, tying Democratic candidates to Obama hasn’t translated to a runaway election for Republicans.
So why does the 2014 election seem a bit like a speed bump on the way to the real show in 2016?
Perhaps the candidates this time are more sophisticated and less willing to go off script. Or perhaps they are less ideological and therefore less apt to make strong statements on anything that might seem controversial. Whatever the case, we’ve had a dearth of candidate “gotcha” moments thus far.
But don’t despair. The closer we get to Election Day, the more desperately campaigns push to turn polls their way. And that dramatically improves the chances someone will say something they wished they hadn’t. And there’s still plenty of time for an “October surprise” that no one saw coming. Stay tuned.
Originally appeared in USA Today.
