Morning Bell: Spectator-in-Chief

James Carafano / March 21, 2011

Yesterday, American B-2 stealth bombers, F-16s, F-15s, and Harrier attack jets bombed both Libyan air and ground defenses including Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s massive residential compound in Tripoli. “We judge these strikes to have been very effective in significantly degrading the regime’s air defense capability,” Vice Adm. Bill Gortney, director of the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Sunday.

But the fact that these operations could be successfully undertaken by coalition forces was never in doubt. The problem is that these operations by themselves will not be decisive in either eliminating the regime or fully protecting civilians. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday that the U.S. expects to turn control of the Libya military mission over to a coalition (headed by the French? the British? or by NATO?) “in a matter of days.” What happens if Qadhafi is still in power by that time? The United Nations mandate authorizing these strikes is extremely broad, permitting anything but “occupying” Libya. The coalition has yet to state specific goals for the operation. What does protecting civilians mean?

Qadhafi’s next move will be to try and exploit the ambiguity the Obama Administration’s leadership failure has created. Within hours of the attack there were already signs that support from the Arab League was weakening. “What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians,” said Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa. These fissures will only grow if Qadhafi retains power and operations become protracted. (more…)