North Korea Missile Threat: Will Washington Blink?

Rory Cooper / March 26, 2009

A Direct Challenge

• Three, Two, One … Launch: North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range Taepo Dong-2 missile in early April, capable of hitting targets in the western United States.
• A Continuing Threat: A 2001 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate assessed a two-stage Taepo Dong-2 could threaten Alaska, Hawaii, and the western United States while a three-stage missile could threaten all of North America with a nuclear warhead.
• Civilian Satellite? North Korea is characterizing the launch as a civilian satellite to minimize negative repercussion from its provocative act. However, mastering the difficult multi-stage capabilities of a satellite launch and a ballistic missile are technologically identical. The same missile that can launch a satellite can launch a nuclear warhead.
• Threat to International Community: North Korea’s defiance represents the first foreign policy test of whether the Obama Administration’s actions will match its strong rhetoric.
• United Nations: U.N. Resolutions 1695 and 1718 unambiguously prohibit Pyongyang from launching a missile or “satellite.” China and Russia may use the “civilian satellite” argument to justify resistance to a strong Security Council response. (more…)