Unemployment Up, Crime Down

David B. Muhlhausen / September 15, 2010

Violent and property crime fell in America last year, the second full year of the current recession, according to new data from the FBI. Recently, the Associated Press ran a story on how criminologists are puzzled by declining crime rates during times of high unemployment.  Criminologists should not be surprised, because the social science literature on the relationship between unemployment and crime rates is mixed.  Studies tend to find either a positive relationship or no relationship at all between unemployment and crime.

Policymakers and journalists need to understand that the causes of are crime are complex. A change in one hypothesized causal factor, say unemployment, does not necessarily mean that crime rates will decrease or increase.  While unemployment has dramatically increased, other social factors, like incarcerating serious and violent offenders and better policing, may be keeping crimes rates on a downward trend. (more…)