What’s at Stake in Kyrgyzstan?

Ariel Cohen / April 14, 2010

The Obama administration has been caught flat-footed once again—this time in Kyrgyzstan. The administration didn’t anticipate the spring riots escalating and sweeping away corrupt President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and his clan. The U.S. was perceived as being too close to Mr Bakiyev, yet it did not move fast enough to distance itself from him and recognize the temporary government led by Roza Otunbayeva.

While Ms. Otunbayeva—who has served as Kyrgyzstan’s foreign minister three times, as well as its ambassador to Washington and London—is a moderate, she is also close to Moscow. Once in office, she immediately sent her deputy to meetings in the Kremlin. One likely topic at those talks was the future of America’s Manas base—no small annoyance to Russia, which also has a military outpost in Kyrgyzstan.

Russia supported “Roza’s Revolution” despite its past opposition to the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia, the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the 2005 revolt in Kyrgyzstan. The reason is likely because Mr. Bakiyev, like the leaders of those other uprisings, was too close to the U.S. and China for Moscow’s comfort. (more…)